The old scaling recipe turned more high-quality human text into lower loss. That trade is still real, but the easy part is ending: future gains depend less on raw token count and more on data quality, synthetic-data mixtures, and multimodal transfer. A modeled look at the regime change.

The AI buildout is not a simple bubble story. It is a race between capability, demand breadth, and the delayed arrival of compute supply.

The most AI-exposed sectors show no productivity breakout. What early evidence there is points, tentatively, toward large operational labor pools — and it softened on the latest revisions. Causality remains unproven.